China’s Q3 GDP growth slows to lowest in a year; Trump tariffs, trade tensions hit demand — Key points - The Times of India
In the third quarter of 2025, China’s economy expanded by just 4.8 % year-on-year — the slowest growth rate in a year — illustrating mounting pressure on the world’s second-largest economy. Domestic demand remains weak: consumer spending has cooled and investment growth has stalled. At the same time, ongoing trade tensions with the United States, under the tariff regime of Donald Trump, have hit Chinese exports to America, shrinking a key outlet for manufacturers. Although export volumes overall have held up thanks to other markets, the combined drag of external headwinds and internal fragility points to deeper structural issues for Beijing to address. With the full-year target of roughly 5 % still within reach, policy makers are walking a fine line between stimulus and caution — and much will depend on how domestic demand and trade relations evolve moving forward.
The Key points
- China’s GDP grew by 4.8 % in Q3, marking the weakest pace in a year.
- Growth decelerated from 5.2 % in the previous quarter.
- Domestic consumption weakened significantly, with retail sales growth slipping.
- Fixed-asset investment fell into negative territory, signalling weak business confidence.
- The property sector remains a major drag, with investment and home-sales down sharply.
- Exports to the U.S. plunged, reflecting the impact of Trump-era tariffs and trade frictions.
- Overall exports held up better by shifting toward other global markets beyond the U.S.
- Industrial output performed relatively better, but cannot offset broader demand weakness.
- Policymakers face the dual challenge of sustaining growth and rebalancing toward consumption.
- Despite the slowdown, China remains on track to meet its full-year growth target, but risks remain elevated.
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